New world news from Time: Boris Johnson’s Controversial Brexit Svengali Is Stepping Down. Biden’s Election Might Be a Factor

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s closest and most controversial advisor Dominic Cummings will step down from his job by the end of the year, according to the BBC, signalling a shift in the leader’s governing style at a time of crisis over the COVID-19 pandemic.

Cummings’ apparent resignation follows days of infighting between aides at 10 Downing Street over access to the Prime Minister, amid a wider shakeup of Johnson’s team in a bid to get a grip on COVID-19 communications.

His much-anticipated departure is a sign of the diminishing influence of original pro-Brexit campaigners in government. Cummings shot to prominence as the architect of the “Vote Leave” campaign, and was played by Benedict Cumberbatch in an HBO dramatization of the 2016 Brexit referendum. But he has since attained a reputation as the Rasputin to Johnson’s Tsar, and the ideological force behind his administration.

“It’s a reset moment for Johnson’s government, and it does suggest a shift from a more confrontational to a more conciliatory approach,” says Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a consultancy. “Cummings was the key architect for a very aggressive and hostile approach, both domestically and on Europe.”

Read more: ‘A Perilous Turning Point.’ How England’s COVID-19 Reopening Went Terribly Wrong

But some analysts said Cummings’ resignation may also be partly linked to President-elect Joe Biden’s recent victory in the U.S. general election. When the U.K.’s transition period to exit the E.U. concludes in January, the government is hoping to strike a lucrative bilateral trade deal with the U.S. Yet Biden, who was Vice-President in an Obama Administration that backed the “Remain” side in the Brexit referendum, has previously called Johnson a “physical and emotional clone of Donald Trump.” And aside from Johnson himself, no person is more responsible than Cummings for the U.K.’s emulation of Trumpian politics.

“My view is, Biden is a factor,” says Rahman, of Cummings’ departure. Biden, who has Irish roots, has warned publicly that it would be unacceptable for the U.K. to put the Northern Ireland peace process at risk in any future Brexit agreement, which analysts say Johnson and Cummings risk doing. “Biden is personally invested in an outcome that avoids that, given his Irish roots, but has politically also been very clear that would completely undermine any prospect of a U.K.-U.S. free trade agreement,” Rahman says.

Lockdown liability

Cummings had become an increasingly divisive presence in 10 Downing Street, especially after the pandemic struck. In May, newspapers revealed that he had traveled more than 500 miles across the country during a period of strict lockdown, while infected with the virus.

Despite immense pressure from lawmakers, the media and public health experts, Johnson refused to fire him, leading to an unprecedented spectacle where Cummings fielded his own press conference in which he attempted to explain his actions did not break the rules. He memorably said that one of his trips during the lockdown, to a beauty spot with his wife and child on his wife’s birthday, had been in order to test his eyesight to make sure he could drive back to London.

Read more: Boris Johnson’s Top Adviser Traveled Over 500 Miles Despite Lockdown. The Scandal Is Rocking the British Government

Public health experts said the affair did more than anything else to dent the public’s trust in government during the pandemic, and may have led to an increase in people breaking lockdown rules. “People had by and large been good about adhering to lockdown” up until that point, John Ashton, a former regional director of public health in England, told TIME in September.

“Anyone must realize, even Boris Johnson, that the comms operation since March has been a bit of a mess on COVID,” says Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London. The broader shakeup within Downing Street in recent days, in which Johnson’s communications director Lee Cain — another Vote Leave alum — also resigned, is an attempt to start afresh, says Rahman. The tipping point may have come at the end of October, when news of a government decision to lock down the country again was leaked by somebody in Downing Street to a friendly newspaper before Johnson could announce it officially.

“A lot of the dysfunction has arisen from Cain and Cummings’ way of doing business — briefing [journalists] selectively, and leaking selectively, in order to try and force decisions on Johnson when they felt he was of two minds,” Rahman says. “If you eliminate the individuals that have been playing that game, of course you increase the likelihood that the government’s communications become a bit more coherent.”

Political operative

When Johnson took over as Prime Minister in 2019, he brought Cummings with him as a senior adviser. The appointment of the pro-Brexit svengali was a blow to many lawmakers in Johnson’s ruling Conservative Party, who knew Cummings for his disregard for politeness and his slovenly appearance, often wearing sweatpants and beanie hats in the office.

Despite being unkempt, Cummings was widely regarded as the power behind Johnson’s throne. He was reputed to be the driving force behind some of the government’s most controversial moves, including locking the doors to Parliament in September 2019, in an attempt to prevent lawmakers from blocking Brexit, and advising Johnson to expel more than a dozen Conservative lawmakers from the party in the aftermath.

But he was also credited with the extraordinary success of the Conservatives’ 2019 election campaign, likely coming up with the campaign slogan “Get Brexit Done,” which helped the party win a giant majority in Parliament and deal a decisive blow to the opposition Labour Party in deprived former industrial heartland seats that traditionally voted Labour but also leaned strongly toward Brexit.

Outside of campaigning, though, his record was more checkered. His ideological ambition of radically reforming the civil service that carries out the work of government never quite came to fruition, and he amassed enemies both among mandarins and within Johnson’s party.

But the jury is out on his legacy within the Johnson administration. “Certainly as a campaigner, he has been a huge success,” says Bale. “But as an advisor to a Prime Minister facing the challenges of government, you’d have to say that his legacy is rather more debatable.”

New world news from Time: How Abiy Ahmed, Nobel Prize Laureate, Lost Control of Ethiopia’s Peace

Some might say that Abiy Ahmed’s plan for a peaceful democratic transition of power in Ethiopia was doomed from the start.

He was, after all, a member of the very same autocratic ruling system that he had pledged to disrupt when he was appointed Prime Minister in 2018. That didn’t stop the Nobel committee from awarding him its highest honor in 2019 for his efforts to end long-standing hostilities with next door Eritrea and for promoting peace in the region. But a peace prize doesn’t necessarily guarantee peace.

On Nov. 4, in an attempt to assert centralized control, Abiy launched a military operation in the semi-autonomous northern state of Tigray following clashes between security forces affiliated with a local political party and federal troops. He declared a six-month state of emergency in the area, and cut off all Internet, phone and banking services. Now the whole region is at risk of destabilization as Abiy’s government slides into a second week of military operations.

It’s not just Ethiopia’s stability that is threatened, but its neighbors in Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea. Humanitarian organizations in Sudan told the Associated Press that at least 11,000 Ethiopians from Tigray have fled across the border, and that they are preparing for 200,000 more. Half of the refugees are children. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said that close to nine million people were at high risk of being affected by the escalation, potentially leading to massive displacement. “It’s a really explosive situation, a powder keg that could blow up in the region unless means for urgent de-escalation are found,” says Dino Mahtani, the International Crisis Group’s (ICG) Deputy Director for Africa. In failing to keep the peace in his own country, Abiy may be undermining his prize-winning efforts elsewhere.

Tigrayans say the military incursions, which include airstrikes, are a precursor to civil war; the federal government prefers to call it an “effort to restore rule of law” after it accused fighters with the local ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), of attacking a government defense post, taking soldiers captive, and attempting to steal artillery and military equipment. Either way, hundreds are reported dead from both sides, according to humanitarian reports. The state broadcaster claims that the Ethiopian Defense Force has killed 550 TPLF fighters, a number that regional leaders dispute. With communication from the region almost completely blocked, it is difficult to verify accounts from either side.

In a video statement posted on Nov. 8, Abiy condemned what he called months of TPLF “provocation and incitement,” saying he had no choice but to launch the military operation in order to “save the country.” But if Tigray’s leaders backed Abiy into a corner, as he claims, it is because he wasn’t very far from it to begin with. Tigrayans may only make up 6% of Ethiopia’s 110 million population, but the TPLF dominated Ethiopia’s military and government for much of the past three decades, until Abiy took office in 2018. Abiy’s sweeping reforms deprived the TPLF of much of its power; his peace overtures to Eritrea, which was engaged in a brutal war in Tigray from 1998-2000, further alienated the regional leadership.

Abiy’s central government also targeted prominent Tigrayan power-brokers in nationwide corruption probes. By all accounts the investigations were justified, but they inflamed Tigrayans, who felt that the transgressions of other, non-Tigrayan leaders in the previous regime had gone unnoticed. Ethiopia’s other ethnic groups, scarred by Tigray’s era of political dominance, piled onto the vilification campaign, augmenting the sense of victimization and fomenting a potent rallying cry for greater independence.

When TIME visited the Tigrayan capital of Mekele in March 2019, the region was already spoiling for a fight. “We feel like we are being targeted,” warned Debretsion Gebremichael, chairman of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, in an interview. “Abiy has to understand that people are not happy, and these grievances have to be addressed as soon as possible.” At the time Gebremichael was deeply concerned that Abiy’s reform campaign and call for national unity would turn the country away from the federalized balance of power into to a centralized state, with little room for ethnic, cultural and linguistic autonomy. “The people of each region must govern themselves, elect their own leaders and use their own language. To dismantle federalism in the name of unity, it will lead to conflict.”

Abiy didn’t seem to get the message. In November 2019 he did away with the coalition of regional parties that had ruled the country for 27 years in favor of a single Prosperity Party. The TPLF declined to join, and Abiy removed all remaining TPLF ministers from his cabinet, essentially cutting off Tigray from power. Then, citing the Covid-19 pandemic, he declared that national elections scheduled for August 2020 would be postponed until 2021.

Tigray wasn’t having it. The state held its own elections in September. Not surprisingly, the TPLF won handily. The federal government declared the elections void and retaliated by withholding funding. Then, on Nov. 2, Ethiopia’s federal parliament designated the TPLF a terrorist group, all but shutting the door to any kind of negotiated resolution. “The TPLF crossed a red line,” says Zadig Abraha, Abiy’s minister in charge of Democratization. “The Prime Minister is committed to peace. He brought peace to our country, and he was able to solve the longstanding conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, so when you come to his record there is no doubt. The problem is not him, but the TPLF.”

Although the government’s accusations that the TPLF have committed terrorist acts throughout the country appear to lack evidence, Tigray’s leaders did little to calm the waters. “The Tigrayans deserve a significant amount of blame for carrying on with that election as they did,” says Judd Devermont, Africa program director for the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., and the U.S.’s National Intelligence Officer for Africa from 2015 to 2018. “The TPLF has been obstructionist, stubborn, resistant and provocative throughout this entire process.” Still, he notes, the federal government should have done more to address some of their concerns before getting to this point.

Before last week, war was not the inevitable outcome of increasing tensions. Now it may be. Abraha says that the only acceptable outcome of the military operation in Tigray is for the “criminal TPLF junta” to step down, surrender, and face a court of law. “The TPLF leadership not only broke the law, they aided, funded, abetted and planned this terrorist attack. We cannot negotiate with a terrorist organization that is involved in the killing of members of our National Defence force.” He claims that the federal forces have already made significant inroads into Tigray, and estimates that they will be successful in achieving their objectives in a matter of days.

While it is impossible to assess the situation on the ground—reports are still emerging of continued airstrikes—Tigrayans are not going to succumb easily. The ICG’s Mahtani estimates that, between local militias and a large, well-trained paramilitary force, Tigray could have up to 250,000 troops, and it appears that the TPLF has the support from the region’s approximately six million people. Back in March 2019, TPLF chair Gebremichael boasted that the war with Eritrea had sharpened their skills, and that “even the elders were giving me spears” to take on the central government. On Nov. 12, the TPLF declared their own state of emergency and called upon all Tigrayans to “defend the security and existence of the people of Tigray and their sovereignty.”

Should the fighting escalate, Eritrea’s president, Isaias Afwerki, could be tempted to send in his own troops in support of Abiy’s forces against longstanding foes in the TPLF dating to the war. Already members of the TPLF allege that Afwerki has sent military advisors to Addis Ababa for consultations, and there are reports of Eritrean conscripts massing at the border. The war could also suck in communities in eastern Sudan, says Mahtani, where Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray all have allies. And if Ethiopia continues to move its military units out of Somalia, where it is one of the key troop contributors for the African Union mission, “it could create a vacuum there.” Says Mahtani. “This is a disaster for the region, for Africa, for the world.”

Even United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres says he is “deeply alarmed” by the situation. “The stability of Ethiopia is important for the entire Horn of Africa region,” he tweeted on Nov. 6. “I call for an immediate de-escalation of tensions and a peaceful resolution to the dispute.”

Without more outside pressure on both parties, it’s hard to see where the necessary compromises might start. Both the European Union and the African Union have called for a ceasefire and dialogue, but so far, Abiy does not appear to be listening. He has already rejected a Tigrayan call for peace talks posted to Facebook. According to Abraha, winning peace for the nation will require a fight. But peace at any cost is not the kind of peace the region can afford.

New world news from Time: China Congratulates Joe Biden on Election Win After Days of Silence

China congratulated Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on winning the U.S. presidential election, ending days of speculation about when Beijing would formally acknowledge the victory.

“We have been following the reaction on this U.S. presidential election from both within the United States and from the international community,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told a briefing in Beijing on Friday. “We respect the American people’s choice and extend congratulations to Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris.”

China’s acknowledgment came after multiple television networks projected Biden would defeat Donald Trump in Arizona, one of the battleground states where the president has looked to overturn the election. China was one of the few countries that had so far withheld comment, as Trump contested the results.

“We understand that the result of the U.S. presidential election will be determined following the U.S. laws and procedures,” Wang said.

Beijing’s official reaction to Biden’s victory had been relatively muted. President Xi Jinping hasn’t offered public congratulations, while the Foreign Ministry this week gave largely vague answers at a briefing on Monday, saying that it hoped the new administration would “work in the same direction as us going forward.”

New world news from Time: COVID-19 Is Reaching the Last Coronavirus-Free Nations on Earth

Eight months after the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic, COVID-19 is reaching the last places on Earth that remained untouched by the coronavirus.

On Wednesday, Vanuatu, a Pacific island nation about 1,200 miles northeast of Australia, reported its first COVID-19 case. Two other countries in the Pacific Ocean, the Marshall Islands and Solomon Islands, reported their first infections in October. In Samoa, workers who serviced a ship with COVID-19-positive crew members are in quarantine.

By most estimates, just nine countries have not yet reported any COVID-19 cases. Except for North Korea and Turkmenistan, where experts say COVID-19 likely exists, all of them are far-flung Pacific island nations—Kiribati, the Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Tonga, Tuvalu and Samoa.

COVID-19 Pacific island map
Lon Tweeten/TIMEAll of the last remaining COVID-19-free nations are believed to be far-flung islands in the Pacific Ocean.

Most Pacific island countries closed their borders early in the COVID-19 outbreak. But as infections surge around the globe, with cases surpassing 50 million, the coronavirus is beginning to creep in.

In Vanuatu, the health department said a 23-year-old man who had recently returned from the United States was confirmed to have the virus after being tested while in quarantine. In response to the COVID-19 case, the government has suspended transport in and out of its capital city Port Vila and has launched an operation to trace and test everyone the man may have come into contact with.

Vanuatu, which is made of some 80 islands stretching across 800 miles of the South Pacific Ocean, closed its borders in March to keep the virus from entering. It even banned foreign aid workers from entering the country after a Category 5 storm devastated the country in April. But it has allowed Vanuatu residents and citizens overseas to return home.

Read more: Tracking the Spread of the Coronavirus Outbreak Around the World

The Marshall Islands recorded its first cases in the last week of October in workers at a U.S. military base who had arrived from Hawaii. The Solomon Islands also recorded its first case in early October; the remote island chain has since confirmed more than a dozen cases among arrivals in quarantine. Neither have yet recorded community transmission of the virus, and this week the Marshall Islands declared itself COVID-19 free again.

In Samoa, three crew members on board a ship that stopped in port have tested positive for the virus in recent days; workers who serviced the ship are now in isolation.

Many Pacific islands ‘can’t cope with even a few cases of COVID-19’

The good news is that, because COVID-19 took so long to get there, these Pacific nations had time to prepare—and may be able to stop the virus from spreading through their populations.

Lana Elliott, an expert on public health in the Pacific at the Queensland University of Technology, is hopeful that Vanautu’s first case can be contained. She says that not having a COVID-19 case until this week has bought the country of some 300,000 people crucial time.

The government and the ministry of health, she says, have “worked diligently for the last number of months to prepare for this exact situation. Processes are in place to ensure this patient can be treated and that the threat to health workers and the broader population is managed.”

There is reason for concern about Vanuatu’s ability to handle a COVID-19 outbreak, should the virus begin spreading in the community.

“Vanuatu, like many of the small islands in the Pacific, can’t cope with even a few cases of COVID-19,” says Colin Tukuitonga, an associate dean at the University of Auckland medical school and the former chief executive of New Zealand’s Ministry of Pacific Island Affairs. “A handful of cases on a small island is going to overwhelm the health system; these are very small and not well funded health systems. They often lack critical equipment, the critical skills,” he says.

Read More: This Tiny Nation Has Zero Coronavirus Cases. After a Devastating Cyclone, It’s Refusing Foreign Aid Workers to Keep It That Way

As a result, contact tracing capabilities are of the utmost importance in preventing community transmission. “That’s the test. How quickly and how reliably the local authorities can identify the contacts,” he says. “It’s not an easy job.”

And unlike many countries in the Asia-Pacific that have used apps to trace contacts, no such technology is available in Vanuatu, he says, which will make the contact tracing process more challenging.

Vanuatu’s director of public health, Len Tarivonda, said that around 200 people had been identified as potential contacts of the infected man, including airline, customs and hotel staff, all of whom are now undergoing testing.

“We are concerned about that, especially since the staff who were working at the borders or the airline, they would have gone back to their families since last week,” Tarivonda told an Australian Broadcasting Corporation radio program.

Dan McGarry, an independent journalist who has lived in Vanuatu for more than 17 years, tells TIME that the news has sparked some fear in Vanuatu, and some are buying face masks to prepare for a possible outbreak. But most people have confidence that the illness is still contained, he says.

“We’re vulnerable and we know it. Our health care services have never been great, and intensive care simply doesn’t exist. We don’t have respirators, and we have very limited critical care facilities. If this were to reach the outer islands, people there would have next to no health care services available to them.”

Margaret Kenning, who lives on a small island in Vanuatu called Nguna says that her neighbors gathered to listen to the midday news on a transistor radio on Wednesday to hear how the government planned to deal with the first COVID-19 case.

The island hasn’t been spared the impacts of COVID-19

Although Vanuatu has managed to fend off the coronavirus until this week, it hasn’t been spared the economic hardship that the pandemic has caused all around the world. Tess Newton Cain, the project leader for the Pacific Hub at the Griffith Asia Institute, a research center, says that the Pacific islands—almost all of which have also closed their borders to keep COVID-19 out—have been hit hard economically. Vanuatu’s tourism-dependent economy is expected to decline 8.3% this year. Others have fared even worse. In Fiji, which has mostly been shut to tourism, GDP is expected dive more than 20% this year.

The journalist McGarry says despite a generous government bailout program in Vanuatu, unemployment is skyrocketing and foreclosures are mounting by the day. “We’re bending as far as we can, but things are starting to break,” he says.

While the closure of borders has “been extremely good for managing health impacts, it’s had quite devastating effect on the economy,” Newton Cain says. “There’s been a lot of job losses, a lot of tourism-focused businesses have closed or are working on really reduced hours.”

Still, Tukuitonga, the former New Zealand diplomat, says trying to keep the virus completely out of the country remains the right strategy for Vanuatu and many other countries in the Pacific.

“The primary aim of keeping it out or keeping it contained at the border is still the right one because if it gets into the community the islands will be simply overwhelmed,” he says.

New world news from Time: Myanmar Went To the Polls for the Second Time Since the End of Military Rule but the Election Was Not Free or Fair

The Rohingya Muslim minority, to which I belong, was again disenfranchised during Myanmar’s election on Nov. 8. My community, which has faced violence and discrimination, is being even further erased from our country. Many ethnic Rakhine, Shan, Kachin, and Karen were also not able to vote. An election that excludes entire communities because of their identity cannot be considered credible, free, nor fair.

On Nov. 8, Myanmar held an election that returned the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) to power, but also ensured the Rohingya—an ethnic group that has faced violence at the hands of the military—were excluded.

There are over a million Rohingya in refugee camps in Bangladesh and nearly 600,000 Rohingya in Myanmar. The adults among them were denied their right to vote, despite orders to prevent genocidal violence from the International Court of Justice and consistent calls from international human rights groups and the Rohingya community itself.

This is the second time that Rohingya have been excluded from participating in an election in Myanmar. In 2015 the military-backed government led by former army general Thein Sein revoked their voting rights. Previously, Rohingya in Myanmar were able to vote and run in all elections, even though they faced violence and persecution in other respects.

The Aung San Suu Kyi government has shown no political will to restore Rohingya’s rights in Myanmar. Since coming to power in 2015, her government has had enough time to abolish discriminatory policies and amend election laws. Back in 2015, many Rohingya believed that the NLD would restore their rights but instead, the government has institutionalized disenfranchisement and normalized discriminatory standards against Rohingya.

The Rohingya have endured hate speech and dehumanizing rhetoric for decades and the government continues to refer to Rohingya incorrectly as “Bengali.” This has also enabled the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) to conduct targeted operations against Rohingya civilians, which according to the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum and key U.N officials constitutes genocide.

The Rohingya were denied their rights to participate in the election as a group on the basis of their identity. The election commission rejected at least six Rohingya candidates who were required to prove their parents’ citizenship. Candidates from other ethnicities are also required to do so, but they have not been stripped of their citizenship like the Rohingya were under a 1982 citizenship law.

The rejected candidates included my father Kyaw Min, chairperson of the Democracy and Human Rights Party, who was an MP-elect in the 1990 vote. He allied with Aung San Su Kyi as a member of CRPP (Committee Representing People’s Parliament), an opposition elite group during the democracy movement under military dictatorship. In 2005 he was arrested and sentenced to 47 years with his family, including me.

Even though the election laws had not changed, they were applied in such a way as to keep most Rohingya leaders from running in 2020. The NLD also canceled elections in over 50 townships, suppressing the votes across other ethnic constituencies including Karen, Shan, and Rakhine States.

The UK based Rohingya right’s group BROUK says disenfranchisement of Rohingya is another step to genocide. The U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum’s recent report suggests that disenfranchisement of Rohingya based on their identity only solidifies divisions and deepens marginalization of the Rohingya, keeping them at risk of mass atrocities, including genocide.

Many Western pro-engagement groups and governments have demonstrated their willingness to put the promotion of democracy—flawed as it may be in Myanmar—over the protection of the Rohingya and others from future atrocities. But sacrificing the lives and safety of Rohingya in the name of promoting democracy is immoral and short-sighted.

The NLD-led government has continued to restrict the democratic rights of citizens and limit freedom of the press. It has increased the numbers of political prisoners and limited ethnic community participation in this election. At the same time, the military continues to enjoy impunity and is escalating conflict against ethnic armed groups, increasing targeted attacks against civilians in Rakhine State and other ethnic areas.

It is time for Western governments to stop endorsing a fundamentally flawed democracy and put stronger pressure on Myanmar. The formation of the Kofi-Annan Advisory Commission on Rakhine State and investigations set up by the Tatmadaw and government show that Myanmar’s military and civilian government has responded to international pressure.

The world needs to make sure that global pressure can change the Myanmar government’s priorities so that it protects all its people—including the Rohingya—from future atrocities. The international community has a moral and legal obligation to protect and prevent genocide and help restore the justice and dignity of the victims and survivors. We can’t afford to wait until the next election and let this crisis go unaddressed for another five years.

New world news from Time: The Paris Attacks 5 Years Ago Left Young People Scarred. But ‘Generation Bataclan’ May Get Its Chance for Justice

At first, the loud blasts sounded like a faulty amplifier to those packed into the crowd at Paris’s Bataclan theater. But within seconds, Arthur Dénouveaux realized he was hearing the retort of automatic gunfire. As pandemonium broke out he flung himself to the floor, and slithered on his belly towards an exit—a skill he learned while serving in the French military. He knew that if he stood up, even for an instant, he would die. For 10 minutes, he moved inch by inch towards a doorway he knew well from previous concerts, while all around him, young people attempting to flee were shot and killed. When he finally made it out into a side street, trembling, he could scarcely believe he had made it out alive. Ninety others inside the venue were not so fortunate, nor forty more killed in the four-hour assault on the French capital. Five years on, Dénouveaux is still marked by the experience. “When November comes my sleep is really not good. I wake up tense and nervous,” he says. He has yet to see another live concert.

As the French capital marks the fifth anniversary on Friday of the terrorist attacks of Nov. 13, 2015, the memories remain vivid for survivors like Dénouveaux, who are still grappling with complex psychological problems as a result. The country is still wrestling with a national debate over France’s relationship with Islam, as extremists have continued to stage lone wolf attacks. And the threat of another mass terrorist attacks has not gone away, as the recent (though less deadly) assault in Vienna has shown.

Yet for many, the question that haunts them is why they were targeted that November night. Unlike the Charlie Hebdo attacks in early January 2015, in which the victims were journalists, the Nov. 13 attacks seemed far more random. The nine ISIS attackers, themselves young men, seemed to target their own peers—and in the process created what came to be known as the “Bataclan Generation,” young French whose adulthood has been forever marked by the tragedy. “Everyone thinks about this to some extent,” says Alexis Lebrun, a survivor of the Bataclan massacre, who was 26 that night. “Our generation has been extremely influenced by the events.”

The killers were native Europeans, some from Belgium, and others from Paris neighborhoods just a short train ride from where they opened fire on their fellow citizens. They targeted the easy-going lifestyle of French youth like themselves, who were accustomed to spending their weekends congregating in Paris’s bars and street cafés, and at music gigs. “It was an attack on youth culture,” says David Fritz Goeppinger, who was 23 that night at the Bataclan. He was among 10 concertgoers taken hostage for two and a half hours during the final assault on the Bataclan. “We are free to drink alcohol, to go to concerts,” he says. “It was a direct attack on young people who could do that.”

A trial of two suspected planners of the killings is set to begin in September 2021, which may yet bring a measure of closure. But for many in Paris, life has not been the same since the attacks. It remains an indelible marker on countless thousands of people, even those who were not at any of the attack sites that night; millions sat in horror for hours that night, listening to police and ambulance sirens, and glued to the unfolding disaster on T.V. as the attackers across the north-east areas of the city, shooting randomly at crowds of people. “Everyone knows where they when 9/11 happened, and in France it is the same thing for the Paris attacks,” says Fritz Goeppinger. “And especially that is true for young people. We have a lot of friends.”

A changed Paris

The attacks put the city on guard, and it has never been able to let it down since. Armed soldiers still patrol the train stations and sites like the Eiffel Tower, while bags are searched at the doors of department stores. And in each school in France, children as young as six practice regular terror drills.

For those who were targeted or saw the violence up close, post-traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD, has been an ever-present reality. For many, the symptoms seem barely to have dissipated in the years since, according to both those who were there, and researchers who have monitored their emotional state over five years. “There are people who are extremely disabled, not necessarily physically, but psychologically,” says Lebrun, who is active in Life for Paris, a group of people who endured the Nov. 13 attacks.

The organization formed online shortly after the attacks, and now comprises about 800 survivors. Many stay in touch through a closed Facebook group, where they ask for help, offer resources, or simply share thoughts. “People have a lot of difficulties with family, friends, everything related to social activities,” he says. The organization is planning a Zoom gathering on Friday evening, for survivors to share thoughts and memories on the fifth anniversary.

Denis Peschanski, a historian who has monitored the experiences of 316 survivors as part of a long-term study funded in part by public research agencies, says that up until last year, “more than 50% still had PTSD.” Among the most common experiences the researchers found were flashbacks of bloodshed or dead bodies, still playing repeatedly in people’s heads. Others avoid taking public transportation, and they sidestep the neighborhoods where the attacks occurred, Peschanski says.

Goeppinger says that when police finally rescued him after hours of being held hostage in the Bataclan, they told him not to look up. But he did, and saw “corpses and blood all over.” He is haunted by that image, along with the thought that he survived, while many others did not. “Why am I alive?” he says. “It is a question that is very, very difficult.” For three years after the attacks, he says, “I was very wounded, psychologically fragile.”

Lebrun says he has suffered similar long-term effects. He survived the Bataclan massacre by laying face down on the floor, playing dead, not daring to move an inch, while the ISIS gunmen roamed the Bataclan, shooting concertgoers at point-blank range. He says it took him nearly four years before he dared venture inside a movie theater, and he still has difficulty taking public transportation.

But even while dealing with their trauma, the survivors also made major life choices. Fitz Goeppinger, now 28, broke up with his girlfriend just weeks after the attack and began a relationship with a long-time friend—now his wife—feeling strongly that he wanted the emotional support of a family of his own. “At our age, that is quite rare,” he says. Lebrun also decided to marry his girlfriend. Not able to face celebrating with a large Paris wedding, the two flew to Las Vegas six months after the attack, and tied the knot at the Graceland Wedding Chapel.

Indeed, for many, committing to work has been more difficult than committing to love. Fritz Goeppinger quit his bartending job two weeks after the attack, and then spent more than two years unable to work at all, before becoming a photographer. Lebrun resigned his job at a public-relations firm shortly after the attack, and became a freelance culture writer. Among members of Life for Paris, Lebrun says, “struggles with employers is one of the main issues. They cannot focus on work, and a lot of people changed their work completely.” Having come so close to being killed, “people felt they could not work in meaningless, bullshit jobs.”

Dénouveaux, who serves as the President of Life for Paris, and was 29 the night he escaped from the Bataclan by slithering silently across the floor, was one such person. He says he is among many survivors who have felt a need to “live life to the fullest.” Shortly after the attack, he quit his job as a banker and began a small investment company of his own, because he was unable to fit back into his old work environment. “People were wondering how damaged I was,” he says. “I could see it in their eyes.”

Reliving the attacks

In interviews, many survivors say they have undergone therapy to process their experiences. But the trauma has proven hard to shake as ISIS attacks have continued periodically in the past five years. Fritz Goeppinger recalls staggering, stunned, down a flight of stairs in 2016 after his phone pinged with news of ISIS’s bomb attacks on a Brussels train station and airport, which killed 32 people. Last month, he published a book about the Bataclan attack, titled “One Day in Our Life,” in which he describes feeling overwhelmed watching the T.V. footage of the attack on the Nice promenade in July, 2016, when an ISIS supporter killed 87 people by driving a truck through a crowded Bastille Day celebration.

Even smaller scale attacks have the potential to retraumatize. The beheading last month of a middle-school history teacher, Samuel Paty, for having shown his teenage students cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed, stunned France—and particularly Christophe Naudin, who himself is a middle-school history teacher, and was inside the Bataclan the night of the attack. He survived that attack by hiding in a small storage room; a close friend who went to the concert with him was killed. Grieving and traumatized, Naudin began a diary after the attack as a way to heal, and finally turned three years of journal entries into a book, called “Diary of a Bataclan Survivor,” which was published last month. The anxiety he experiences every year as Nov.13 is expecially pronounced in 2020 with the killing of Paty, and the isolation the pandemic has brought. “I am not in great shape,” he says.

Soon however many survivors will be asked to relive their experiences again, this time in the name of bringing the guilty to justice. The trial is due to begin next September of two alleged ISIS members, Salah Abdeslam and Mohamed Abrini, who were arrested in Brussels months after the Paris attacks, and are believed to have been involved in planning both those killings and the bombings in the Belgian capital six months later. The trial is expected to run into 2022, and could involve up to 1,500 witnesses—including many of the Bataclan survivors. That could be another step in overcoming trauma, according to Peschanski, the researcher who has tracked 316 survivors. “It will be very, very difficult for these people,” he says. “But it will be absolutely crucial for them from my point of view.“

Those who endured the Bataclan’s nightmare that night agree. The prospect of the trial has given them new purpose, as they begin to prepare testimony and meet with lawyers. “It is a horizon for us,” Fritz Goeppinger says. “It will be very powerful to stand there, and see those people who did this, and look them in the eye.” Do they hope to hear expressions of regrets from those in the dock? “No,” he says. “We do not expect remorse.”

New world news from Time: Will Thanksgiving Be a COVID-19 Disaster? In Canada, the Answer Was ‘Yes’

As coronavirus cases and hospitalizations spike across the United States, public-health officials, local leaders and others are urging Americans to rethink their typical Thanksgiving plans this year. “I would encourage everyone to follow the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s] guidelines and plan for a smaller dinner, with your immediate household family only,” New Jersey governor Phil Murphy said during a Nov. 5 press briefing; his state, like many others, is facing a frightening new wave. “We do not want anyone’s Thanksgiving to lead to more cases of COVID-19.”

Prolonged indoor gatherings of many people from different households, after all, are a major risk factor for viral spread. Moreover, it’s tough to keep a mask on when you’re busy shoving grandma’s turkey and stuffing into your face, and alcohol consumption can make people less careful about practicing social distancing. One especially alarming analysis suggests the odds of having at least one COVID-19-positive person at a moderately-sized Thanksgiving gathering this year could be nearly 100% in some hard-hit parts of the country, and only slightly less elsewhere.

Will this year’s Thanksgiving gatherings lead to more viral spread in the U.S.? For a decent prediction, we need only look to our friends to the north, as Canada celebrated its version of Thanksgiving almost exactly a month ago, on Oct. 12. While Canada was already on an upward trajectory for COVID-19 even before Thanksgiving, several Canadian experts told me that, yes, the holiday almost definitely made things even worse.

“It’s not that we were flat and all of a sudden Thanksgiving happened and there we see an increase,” says Dr. Laura Rosella, associate professor and epidemiologist at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto. But, she adds, “the reason why we’re fairly confident Thanksgiving did increase cases is that we saw our highest numbers yet in the two weeks following Thanksgiving, which is consistent with the incubation period, when people would show symptoms and get reported.”

Furthermore, Rosella says Canada’s post-Thanksgiving increases are coming even as it’s getting harder for some Canadians to get tested; more cases with less testing suggests truly explosive growth. “Because our testing was getting strained, the requirements for getting a test actually became stricter,” she says. “So we’re seeing more cases even though we had to change the criteria for testing such that only those who are in high-risk situations and are symptomatic are getting tested.”

Rosella also added that contact tracing efforts showed that Thanksgiving gatherings directly resulted in viral spread—useful and informative information that wouldn’t show up in the overall numbers above, but underscore the importance of an effective testing and tracing program.

Dr. Matthew Oughton, assistant professor of medicine at McGill University and attending physician in the infectious diseases division of Montreal’s Jewish General Hospital, adds that Thanksgiving’s impact might have shown up even more prominently in the data, if not for some Canadian provinces’ decision to implement new measures, like shutting down indoor dining and movie theaters, around the same time as the holiday.

“Although we didn’t see a huge surge in the number of cases in Ontario and Quebec, what’s actually striking is that we didn’t see the decrease that you would have expected to see as a result of those lockdown measures,” says Oughton. “One of the theories is that at the same time the lockdown measures should have been bringing things down, it was actually Thanksgiving pushing those numbers back up.”

As it did in Canada, American Thanksgiving is coinciding with two other dangerous trends: COVID-19 cases are spiking across the country, while “pandemic fatigue”—people’s sense of being straight-up sick and tired of changing their behavior to help curb viral spread—appears to be rising. Even people who are being careful in their everyday lives may view Thanksgiving as an exception, a chance to pretend everything’s normal for a day. But the virus doesn’t care if it’s a holiday or not, of course.

Many Americans, this writer included, are planning on a pandemic-safe Thanksgiving, foregoing the usual big in-person family gathering in favor of a smaller meal and a hangout over video chat. But others will likely ignore experts’ warnings and gather regardless of the danger. Indeed, nearly 2 in 5 Americans are planning on gathering with more than 10 people this Thanksgiving, according to a new Ohio State University survey. So what can people do to try to reduce the danger if they insist on getting together in person?

“All this virus needs is close contact for a prolonged period of time, and especially indoors, because there’s poorer ventilation,” says Oughton. Distancing is better than not distancing, he says, and having an outdoor celebration, where the weather allows, is also preferable, given the better natural ventilation. If you can’t have Thanksgiving outdoors, Oughton says, consider keeping the windows open to improve ventilation, or rethinking how you seat people. “Can you have people seated farther away, so instead of just the one family table, can you have a few smaller tables?” he says. “Or do you have people get their food and sit down, but again with distancing so at least you can be together and have a meal together even if you’re still sitting at least six feet apart?”

Still, Oughton echoes the advice of many other public-health experts, saying that it’s better to connect with extended family online this year to help ensure everyone’s happy and healthy for next year’s holiday season—especially given that some family members, like grandparents, are more vulnerable to severe COVID-19 due to age and other potential factors.

“It’s not the same thing as being able to see them and hug them in person, but then again,” he says, “I wouldn’t want to have a nice Thanksgiving and then find out two weeks later that one of them landed in the hospital.”

New world news from Time: The U.K. Becomes the Fifth Country to Exceed 50,000 Coronavirus Deaths

LONDON — The United Kingdom on Wednesday became the fifth country in the world to record more than 50,000 coronavirus-related deaths, a level that one of the nation’s leading doctors says “should never have been reached.”

Figures from the British government showed that 595 more people in the country died within 28 days of testing positive for the virus, the highest daily number since May. The figure took the U.K.’s total death toll from the pandemic to 50,365.

The U.K, which has the highest virus-related death toll in Europe, joins the United States, Brazil, India and Mexico in reporting more than 50,000, according to a tally maintained by Johns Hopkins University.

The U.K.’s overall death toll is widely considered to be far higher than that as the total reported only includes those who have tested positive for the virus and doesn’t include those who died of COVID-related symptoms after 28 days.

Like other nations in Europe, the U.K. is experiencing a resurgence of the virus and has imposed new restrictions to curb infections over the past few weeks. Though England was put under lockdown last week, the government has been criticized for having imposed it too late, a charge it also faced when it imposed a U.K.-wide lockdown in March.

Following the news about the death toll exceeding 50,000, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the U.K. is better equipped to handle outbreaks than it was during the first wave in the spring, when the country reported more than 40,000 deaths.

In addition to the prospect of a vaccine or vaccines against the coronavirus, Johnson pointed to a ramp-up in testing. Last week, the government started its first citywide testing program in the northwest England city of Liverpool. It is planning more mass testing, including of university students in early December ahead of their return home for the holidays.

“We have two boxing gloves to pummel the disease in the weeks and months that follow,” said Johnson, who was hospitalized with COVID-19 in April. “But I have got to stress that we are not out of the woods yet. It does require everybody to follow the guidance.”

In Wednesday’s daily update, the British government also said that another 22,950 people tested positive for the virus. While the number of new cases is much higher than 24-hour statistics recorded in the summer, daily confirmed cases appear to be stabilizing, or at least, growing far more slowly.

Because of time lags, the number of people being hospitalized and dying are expected to continue rising for weeks, even after the number of confirmed infections do start going down.

“Sadly the upward trend is likely to continue, and it will be several weeks before any impact of the current measures — and the sacrifices we are all making — is seen and is reflected in the data,” said Dr. Yvonne Doyle, medical director of Public Health England.

Under the terms of the current lockdown in England, non-essential places such as pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, golf courses, gyms, swimming pools, entertainment venues and stores selling items like books, clothing and sneakers, must remain closed until at least Dec. 2.

Unlike the U.K.’s spring lockdown, schools and universities in England are remaining open this time, as are construction sites and factories.

In a visit to a supermarket in southeast London, Johnson said that “hopefully” the four-week lockdown in England will be eased enough for people to have a Christmas that is “as normal as possible.”

Whatever happens in the near-term, there are calls for a public inquiry to assess a range of issues that many think have led to more deaths in the U.K. than should otherwise have occurred, from problems with the testing program to shortages of personal protective equipment at the outset of the pandemic, as well as the high death rates in care homes and within ethnic minority groups.

“Today’s figure is a terrible indictment of poor preparation, poor organization by the government, insufficient infection control measures, coupled with late and often confusing messaging for the public,” said Dr. Chaand Nagpaul, council chair of the British Medical Association, a union for doctors.

“This is a point that should never have been reached.”

New world news from Time: The E.U. Says It Is Looking Forward to Better Ties With the U.S. Under Biden

BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union on Wednesday said it looked forward to better relations with the United States under the leadership of President-elect Joe Biden, and expressed hope the presidential transition will not be “bumpy.”

EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell warmly congratulated “Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris for their historic victory” and said the 27-nation bloc looked forward to better relations than under President Donald Trump.

“It is not a secret, (either), that in the past 4 years things have become complicated,” Borrell told legislators at the European Parliament. Both sides, despite being longstanding allies, disagreed over key topics from trade and security to the fight against climate change.

The EU is expected to invite Biden soon to videoconference talks in an attempt to give new impetus to the trans-Atlantic alliance.

“You can rest assured that we are ready to engage fast with the new administration,” Borrell said. But he also alluded to the political problems remaining in the U.S. where Trump has yet to concede defeat. Biden is steadfastly pushing forward with preparations for his presidency.

“We still have to wait until (the) 20th of January because as you know very well it is a quite long transition ahead. Let’s hope it is not going to be a bumpy transition,” Borrell said.

Trump has variously stunned and disappointed the Europeans — most of them members of the NATO military alliance that America leads — by slapping tariffs on EU exports and pulling out of the Paris climate agreement and the Iran nuclear deal.

New world news from Time: Netanyahu Said Trump Was Israel’s ‘Greatest Friend.’ How Will He Cope with Biden in the White House?

On Nov 8, the day after Joe Biden’s acceptance speech, Israel’s far-right defense minister Naftali Bennet tweeted his congratulations to the President-Elect. Bennet’s more effusive language, however, he reserved for the man still occupying the Oval Office: “You brought us peace without giving up land,” he wrote, “You made it clear the focus of the region is not the Palestinians. We will never forget this and we will always remain thankful.”

In the four years since Bennet declared “the era of the Palestinian State” over upon Donald Trump’s poll-defying win in 2016, Bennet’s views—on the White House, at least—have gone from fringe to consensus. Where in 2016, polling showed most Israelis favored President Hillary Clinton, the vast majority preferred Trump in 2020.

That’s largely down to the unprecedented favoritism Trump showed to Israel on issues related to the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict. His team of special advisor Jared Kushner, special envoy Jason Greenblatt (since departed), and U.S. ambassador to Israel David Friedman championed some of the ambitions of hardliners like Bennet, who aspire to a Biblical vision of Israel that stretches from the Jordan River to the Sea of Galilee, incorporating the Palestinian territories of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

But the proposed annexation of swathes of the West Bank was suspended over the summer as a condition of the UAE and Bahrain’s recent normalization deals with Israel. Under Biden, unequivocal in his support for a two-state solution, it might be off the table completely.

A Democratic victory strips Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of support from a U.S. president he described as Israel’s “greatest friend,” at a moment when he is facing weekly protests over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and a felony corruption trial. It could also leave him exposed to challenges from hardliners, whose views Netanyahu helped bring into the political mainstream.

“There’s no question that Bibi is losing his patron,” says Shira Efron, a senior policy researcher at the Israel Policy Forum, using a popular nickname for Netanyahu. That hurts the prime minister domestically, but it also diminishes his stature on the world stage. Netanyahu promoted the idea that “only [he] has an open door with the White House,” Efron says. “So, he didn’t just lose Trump, he lost the ability to mediate with other governments.”

Netanyahu’s own loss of prominence is mirrored by the one Israel can be expected to undergo. Biden will inherit a deeply divided America struck hard by a pandemic. His transition team will contend with a lame-duck president that has still refused to concede defeat. When compared to the challenges he faces in China, North Korea, and Iran, “I don’t think Israel–Palestine is going to be the number one priority for Biden,” says Yossi Meckelberg, an international relations expert at Regent’s University, London.

How Netanyahu and Biden will get along

Netanyahu and Trump may have been kindred spirits politically but the prime minister’s relations with Trump’s predecessor, former President Obama, were decidedly frostier. They were at their coldest when Netanyahu circumvented the White House to become only the second foreign leader since Winston Churchill to address Congress directly—denouncing the Obama administration’s signature foreign policy deal on Iran.

In his congratulatory note to Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris on Nov 8, Netanyahu appeared keen to assert his friendship with Obama’s Vice-President. “Joe, we’ve had a long and warm personal relationship for nearly 40 years, and I know you as a great friend of Israel,” he wrote.I look forward to working with both of you to further strengthen the special alliance between the US and Israel.”

Netanyahu’s opponents in Israel argue that Democrats have not forgiven him, despite the prime minister’s claims he has maintained good relations on both sides of the aisle. “The disconnect between him and the reality of the situation is so dramatic that he doesn’t even know what the Democratic Party and the new administration think and say about him,” says Yair Lapid, chairman of the Yesh Atid party and leader of the opposition in Israel’s parliament. “Netanyahu took a dangerous gamble and endangered our strategic bi-partisan relationship with the United States. Only a new government can fix that.”

Experts say a return to the acrimony that characterized Netanyahu’s relationship with former President Obama is unlikely. When relations were at their sourest it was Biden who served as an intermediary—one Israeli diplomat that served under Netanyahu described him as the “good cop.” Biden, a Catholic, has in the past declared himself a “Zionist” and reportedly intervened to remove references to Israel’s “occupation” from the Democratic party platform—although last year he said that Netanyahu had drifted to the “extreme right” in order to survive politically.

But the Biden White House is likely to change direction from the past four years. It may slow settlement building in the West Bank, which accelerated under Trump. It could also encourage Arab States pursuing new normalization agreements with Israel to attach conditions that would benefit the Palestinians, according to experts who spoke with the New York Times. Palestinian leaders told TIME recently that they hoped Biden would re-open the shuttered Palestinian mission in Washington, restore funding to Palestinian refugees, and establish a second U.S. consulate for the Palestinian leadership in East Jerusalem.

Arab Israeli lawmakers aren’t expecting much more than that, however. “Biden will take off the table the deal of the century,” says Ayman Odeh, the leader of a coalition of Arab–Israeli dominated parties, referring to the Trump peace proposal. “But it’s hard for me to believe that he’ll put actual pressure on Israel to end the occupation.”

To annex or not to annex?

In Israel’s domestic sphere, a Democratic White House may benefit the hard right as much as the far-left, who remain a marginal political force. While Netanyahu will have to be cautious about aggravating the Democrats with overt plays to his base, says IPC’s Efron, hardliners in Israel’s parliament will feel no such constraints.

“As long as you had someone like Obama in office, it served as Netanyahu’s break when the right asked him why are you not annexing? Why are you not extending settlements or legalizing the outposts?” says Regent’s University. “Then comes Trump: not only is he not stopping him; he’s pushing him.”

Meckleberg believes that no matter how much Netanyahu trumpeted his intent to annex the West Bank, he did not intend to go against the advice of his security establishment and risk opprobrium on the international stage. For a prime minister known to be a cautious actor on foreign policy, annexing territory Israel already effectively controls doesn’t make sense, he argues. The normalization deals with the UAE and Bahrain allowed him to call it off without losing face.

Still, de facto annexation continues unabated. Days after Biden was declared winner, right-wing lawmakers in Israel began promoting plans to advance settlement infrastructure before Trump leaves office. Likud’s transportation minister Miri Regev on Oct 9 announced plans for new transportation infrastructure in the West Bank. Likud’s Tzachi Hanegbi planted a tree near Jericho—a tactic used by some settlers to lay claim to land they illegally occupy. Authorities are this week expected to release a tender booklet for Givat Hamatos, one of the West Bank’s most controversial settlements according to Israeli anti-occupation organization Peace Now.

In the interim, Israel watchers are waiting on Biden’s pick for Secretary of State and the makeup of the Senate for a clearer indication of the extent to which the Democrats’ progressive wing might influence foreign policy. Among the favorites are former national security advisor Susan Rice, whose selection would be read in Israel as a signal Biden plans to pick up where Obama left off, a former Israeli diplomat told Israel’s Haaretz newspaper. It would also be a blow for Netanyahu: Rice implied Netanyahu was racist in his angry response to Obama’s acceleration of peace talks with Iran, according to a 2015 book by former peace negotiator Dennis Ross. Ross also wrote that Rice’s “combative mind-set” had “damaged our relationship with Israel.”

When Biden addressed Americans on the evening of Nov. 7, some were struck by the magnitude of the task he faced. His acceptance speech focused on unity and healing the deep divisions that had spit America. To Meckleberg, it seemed unlikely he would deliberately seek contentious issues to tackle: “He won’t set himself to fail, which the Israeli–Palestinian conflict gives you: a high probability of failing.”